A meaningful referendum would be one in which the British people were consulted on whether, after Brexit, they wish to be liberated from the taxes that impose £500bn+ worth of avoidable damage to the wealth and health of the nation (Scotland £36bn+).
The only viable strategy for the UK is a reform-led programme that organically restructures the economy to replace rent-seeking with value-adding enterprise. That is, migrating from taxing wages and trade to AGR/LVT. This would re-balance relationships between the regions by eliminating the economic bias that has favoured London for centuries and continues to do so today.
If Scots embraced such a reform and Westminster resisted the erosion of its traditional unfair London and south-east privileges within the ‘UK Idea’ as currently managed (likely), Scottish independence would be certain and Scotland’s future bright.
With AGR Scotland, on its own, would indeed prosper. Annual deficits would be history. The policy of indebting our children before they are born would be binned.
As a full partner (not a status achieved to date) in a reformed AGR-UK, Scotland would prosper even more. But whether Westminster can adapt in the face of pressure from vested interests at the roots of UK inequality is doubtful. In which case Scotland must move to AGR/LVT alone.
Holyrood can start today by using existing devolved tax varying powers to swap a large chunk of Income Tax (or indeed all of it) for locally collected AGR/LVT. Even this first step would radically transform the lives of Scots for the better. Powers to eliminate the other two thirds of the economic damage (attributable in the main to VAT and National Insurance) are yet to be won.
